Linear and Nonlinear Predictablity of International Securitized Real Estate Returns: A Reality Check

Juan Cabrera, Tao Wang, and Jian Yang
Journal of Real Estate, Vol. 33, Num., Pages: 565-594
This paper examines the short-horizon return predictability of the ten largest international securitized real estate markets, paying special attention to possible nonlinearity-in-mean as well as nonlinearity-in-variance predictability. Although international securitized real estate returns are generally not predictable based on commonly-used statistical criteria, there is much evidence for the predictability based on economic criteria (i.e., direction of price changes and trading rule profitability), which is more often due to nonlinearity-in-mean. The forecast combinations for various models appear to improve the forecasting performance, while the allowance of data-snooping bias using White’s reality check substantially mitigates spurious out-of-sample forecasting performance and weakens otherwise overwhelmingly strong predictability. Overall, there is robust evidence for the predictability in many international securitized real estate markets.