Tag Archives: Yang

U.S. Monetary Policy Surprises and International Securitized Real Estate Markets

Pisun Xu and Jian Yang
The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Vol. 43, Issue 4
This paper examines the impact of U.S. monetary policy surprises on securitized real estate markets in 18 countries. The policy surprises are measured by both the surprise changes to the target federal funds rate (the target factor) and surprises in the future direction of the Federal Reserve monetary policy (the path factor). The results show that most international securitized real estate markets have significantly positive responses to surprise decrease in current or future expected federal funds rates, though such responses vary greatly across countries. Also, while the U.S. securitized real estate market reacts mainly to the target factor, foreign securitized real estate markets react to the path factor. Furthermore, we find that the cross-country variation in the response to the target factor is correlated with the country’s exchange rate regime and its degree of real economic and particularly financial integration, while the cross-country variation in the response to the path factor is mainly related to the country’s degree of financial integration.

Linear and Nonlinear Predictablity of International Securitized Real Estate Returns: A Reality Check

Juan Cabrera, Tao Wang, and Jian Yang
Journal of Real Estate, Vol. 33, Num., Pages: 565-594
This paper examines the short-horizon return predictability of the ten largest international securitized real estate markets, paying special attention to possible nonlinearity-in-mean as well as nonlinearity-in-variance predictability. Although international securitized real estate returns are generally not predictable based on commonly-used statistical criteria, there is much evidence for the predictability based on economic criteria (i.e., direction of price changes and trading rule profitability), which is more often due to nonlinearity-in-mean. The forecast combinations for various models appear to improve the forecasting performance, while the allowance of data-snooping bias using White’s reality check substantially mitigates spurious out-of-sample forecasting performance and weakens otherwise overwhelmingly strong predictability. Overall, there is robust evidence for the predictability in many international securitized real estate markets.

Conditional coskewness in stock and bond markets: time-series evidence

Jian Yang, Yinggang Zhou, Zijun Wang
Management Science,Vol. 56, Issue 11, Pages: 2031-2049.

In the context of a three-moment intertemporal capital asset pricing model specification, we characterize conditional coskewness between stock and bond excess returns using a bivariate regime-switching model. We find that both conditional US stock coskewness (the relation between stock return and bond volatility) and bond coskewness (the relation between bond return and stock volatility) command statistically and economically significant negative ex ante risk premiums. The impacts of stock and bond coskewness on the …
[Full Text]

Nonlinearity and intraday efficiency tests on energy futures markets

Tao Wang and Jian Yang
Energy Economics, Vol. 32, Issue 2, pp. 496-503

Using high frequency data, this paper first time comprehensively examines the intraday efficiency of four major energy (crude oil, heating oil, gasoline, natural gas) futures markets. In contrast to earlier studies which focus on in-sample evidence and assume linearity, the paper employs various nonlinear models and several model evaluation criteria to examine market efficiency in an out-of-sample forecasting context. Overall, there is evidence for intraday market inefficiency of two of the four energy future markets (heating oil and natural gas), which exists particularly during the bull market condition but not during the bear market condition. The evidence is also robust against the data-snooping bias and the model overfitting problem, and its economic significance can be very substantial.

Nonlinearity, data-snooping, and stock index ETF return predictability

Jian Yang, Juan Cabrerab and Tao Wang
European Journal of Operational Research, Vol. 200 Issue 2,  pp. 498-507

This paper examines daily return predictability for eighteen international stock index ETFs. The out-of-sample tests are conducted, based on linear and various popular nonlinear models and both statistical and economic criteria for model comparison. The main results show evidence of predictability for six of eighteen ETFs. A simple linear autoregression model, and a nonlinear-in-variance GARCH model, but not several popular nonlinear-in-mean models help outperform the martingale model. The allowance of data-snooping bias using White’s Reality Check also substantially weakens otherwise apparently strong predictability.

Out-of-Sample Predictability in International Equity Markets: A Model Selection Approach

Xiaojing Su, Tao Wang and Jian Yang
Financial Review, Vol. 44 Issue 4, p559-582

For 13 major international stock markets, there is much evidence of out-of-sample predictability for growth stocks especially when evaluated with economic criteria, and to a noticeably lesser extent for general stock markets and value stocks. Our results shed light on the recent debate about stock return predictability, using different assets (growth-style indexes), forecasting variables (past returns), forecasting models (nonlinear models), and alternative forecasting evaluation criteria (economic criteria). Our analysis suggests that (growth) stock returns might be predictable.

The stock-bond correlation and macroeconomic conditions: One and a half centuries of evidence

Yang, Jian, Zhou, Yinggang, and Wang, Zijun
Journal of Banking & Finance Vol. 33, Issue 4, p. 670-680

Using monthly stock and bond return data in the past 150 years (1855–2001) for both the US and the UK, this study documents time-varying stock-bond correlation over macroeconomic conditions (the business cycle, the inflation environment and monetary policy stance). There are different patterns of time variation in stock-bond correlations over the business cycle between US and UK, which implies that bonds may be a better hedge against stock market risk and offer more diversification benefits to stock investors in the US than in the UK. Further, there is a general pattern across both the US and the UK during the post-1923 subperiod and during the whole sample period: higher stock–bond correlations tend to follow higher short rates and (to a lesser extent) higher inflation rates.

Do futures lead price discovery in electronic foreign exchange markets?

Cabrera, Juan, Wang, Tao and Yang, Jian
Journal of Futures Markets Vol. 29, Issue 2, p. 137-156

Using intraday data, this study investigates the contribution to the price discovery of Euro and Japanese Yen exchange rates in three foreign exchange markets based on electronic trading systems: the CME GLOBEX regular futures, E-mini futures, and the EBS interdealer spot market. Contrary to evidence in equity markets and more recent evidence in foreign exchange markets, the spot market is found to consistently lead the price discovery process for both currencies during the sample period. Furthermore, E-mini futures do not contribute more to the price discovery than the electronically traded regular futures.

Is Value Premium a Proxy for Time-Varying Investment Opportunities: Some Time Series Evidence

Guo, Hui, Robert Savickas, Zijun Wang, and Jian Yang
Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Vol 44, Issue 1 , pp. 133-154

Recent authors argue that the value premium constructed from the cross-section of stocks is a proxy for investment opportunities. We show that this conjecture sheds light on the puzzling empirical risk-return tradeoff in the stock market across time. That is, in contrast with many early authors, we find that the stock market return is positively and significantly related to its conditional variance after controlling for its covariance with the value premium. The covariance, which is negatively correlated with stock variance, is positively and significantly priced as well.

Therefore, by ignoring the effect of time-varying investment opportunities on the stock market return, the early specification might suffer from an omitted variables problem, which generates a downward bias in the estimate of the risk-return relation. Also, consistent with recent investment-based equilibrium models, we document a positive and significant relation between the value premium and its conditional variance over the post-1963 period. Overall, our empirical evidence suggests that the value premium might be a proxy for investment opportunities.

U.S. Monetary Policy Surprises and Currency Futures Markets: A New Look

Tao Wang, Jian Yang and Simpson, Marc W.
Financial Review Vol. 43, Issue 4, p. 509-541

Intraday currency futures prices react to both surprises in the federal funds target rate (the target factor) and surprises in the anticipated future direction of Federal Reserve monetary policy (the path factor) in similar magnitude, and the reaction is short-lived. Dollar-denominated currency futures prices drop significantly in response to positive surprises (i.e., unexpected increases) in the target and path factors, but have generally little response to negative surprises. A monetary policy tightening during expansionary periods leads to an appreciation of the domestic currency, while a monetary policy loosening during recessionary periods tends to have no significant impact.

Fiscal policy and asset markets: A semiparametric analysis

Dennis W. Jansen, Qi Li, Zijun Wang, and Jian Yang
Journal of Econometrics Vol. 147, Issue 1, p. 141-150

This paper contributes to the literature in two important aspects. We first examine the role of fiscal policy on the U.S. stock and bond markets, and we document the conditioning information role of fiscal policy via interactions with monetary policy, a feature that has been forcefully emphasized in the recent theoretical literature but not yet thoroughly investigated empirically. The few existing empirical works only consider the role of fiscal policy as a direct information variable separate from monetary policy. Second, we employ a flexible varying coefficient specification in our econometric analysis, which has not been commonly used in this line of research. We find that a semiparametric varying coefficient model and its variants (Cai, Fan, Yao, 2000) appear to be particularly suitable for capturing the potentially complex interactions between fiscal and monetary policies.

Realized volatility and correlation in energy futures markets.

Wang, Tao, Wu, Jingtao, and Yang, Jian
Journal of Futures Markets, Vol. 28 Issue 10, p. 993-1011

Using high-frequency returns, realized volatility and correlation of the NYMEX light, sweet crude oil, and Henry-Hub natural gas futures contracts are examined. The unconditional distributions of daily returns and daily realized variances are non-Gaussian, whereas the distributions of the standardized returns (normalized by the realized standard deviation) and the (logarithms of) realized standard deviations appear approximately Gaussian. The (logarithms of) standard deviations exhibit long-memory, but the realized correlation between the two futures does not, implying rather weak inter-market linkage in the long run. There is evidence of asymmetric volatility for natural gas but not for crude oil futures. Finally, realized crude oil futures volatility responds with an increase in the weeks immediately before the OPEC events recommending price increases.

Do Euro exchange rates follow a martingale? Some out-of-sample evidence

Yang, Jian, Su, Xiaojing, and Kolari, James
Journal of Banking & Finance; Vol. 32 Issue 5, p. 729-740

Traditional autocorrelation and variance ratio tests are based on serial uncorrelatedness rather than martingale difference. As such, they do not capture potential nonlinearity-in-mean, which could lead to misleading inferences in favor of the martingale hypothesis. This paper employs various parametric and nonparametric nonlinear models as well as several model comparison criteria to examine the potential martingale behavior of Euro exchange rates in the context of out-of-sample forecasts. The overall evidence indicates that, while martingale behavior cannot be rejected for Euro exchange rates with major currencies such as the Japanese yen, British pound, and US dollar, there is nonlinear predictability in terms of economic criteria with respect to several smaller currencies.

Contagion around October 1987 International Stock Market Crash

Yang, Jian, and David A. Bessler
European Journal of Operation Research, Vol 184, Issue 1, Pages 291-310

This study investigates financial contagion among seven international stock markets around the October 19, 1987 crash. Building on a recent advance in vector autoregression analysis by [Swanson, N., Granger, C.W.J., 1997. Impulse response functions based on a causal approach to residual orthogonalization in vector autoregression. Journal of the American Statistical Association 92, 357–367], data-determined historical decompositions are conducted to provide a day-by-day picture of price fluctuation transmission, which is crucial to explore the financial contagion pattern characterized by rich dynamics. The results clearly show that the crash originated in the US market and that an upward movement in the Japanese market after the crash helped the recovery in the US market, which has not yet been empirically documented in the literature.